Support Board
Date/Time: Tue, 26 Nov 2024 11:45:38 +0000
Post From: Replay is skipping days?
| [2023-12-06 13:53:22] |
| j4ytr4der_ - Posts: 938 |
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Let's examine some of this =) 1. The patterns you describe are meaningless and arbitrary. They're not based on the actual volume of what went on in the market, so they are essentially just random noise. Any price pattern traded mechanically, will always ultimately lose money. There are some traders who manually manage such trades and they're really good at getting out once proven wrong, so they can keep losses small enough to make money over time. But that just means their edge is in keeping losses extremely small. 2. It's not the algo that stops "working". It was the underlying premise in the first place that never made any sense (assuming they're based on things like you describe). Markets also change, they go through phases, cycles, etc. So any expectation of any mechanical solution winning 100% of the time is totally foolish. 3. I don't think this can be answered since "robust" will be a subjective measure. But if an edge has say an 82% frequency of occurrence, and one applies expectancy and position sizing rules to it, then it should "work" if not forever, then at least for quite a long time or reliably under certain market conditions. I don't have anything personal to share at the moment as I'm in the early stages of actual deployment of my "bots" and am still discovering mistakes in what I've done, etc. So far I've passed evaluations with them (my usual testing grounds), and lost some cash (due to aforementioned mistakes in what I built). But I can see the principles are sound, and I'm still on a much better path than ever before in over 20 years of "chasing the trading dream". This idea of some mechanical black box just printing money forever, is what I mentioned as a pointless thing to chase in an earlier post. Took me a long time to let go of that. Markets are forever changing, and everything has to adapt. This is why my current desired approach is to have a number of such edges, and constantly be working on more, so that I am regularly reviewing performance, testing new ideas, and replacing the poorest performer(s) with new ones, in the same way any "diversified investor" would replace their poorest performing assets in a portfolio. My job is R&D, the computer's job is to trade. As to your last paragraph... I would say it's a myth that things like phd level math and an army of quants are required for this sort of thing. In fact basic math and some (ok, a lot of) effort are enough, but one has to not get distracted by all the noise out there (particularly in the retail space) and chase nonsense like TA indicators and such. You might like these two videos... they're by Lee Harris of emojiTrading and Trading Research Group, very serious guy, not an "influencer" by any stretch of the imagination. He's active on this board, maybe he'll have something to say about all this. Or maybe not... he probably can't be bothered lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRzBYwWbAmQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JR3tW7k779I&t |